Friday, January 20, 2012

Predicting the Oscar Nominations

It's Oscar season. Naturally this means I'm watching movies than usual (a clever front to justify more popcorn than usual). As in the past, I'm going to offer my predictions in the majors categories. If you end up winning a lot of money off of these predictions, please at least promise to spend it on some shallow, materials goods. That would be the best way to thank me.

Anyway, let's do this. I'm going to focus on Picture, Director, and Acting categories. I don't really care about much else except Original Score, which I doubt any of you care about so there's no need to write about it. Whee.

Let's work backwards.

Best Supporting Actor

The five I predict are...

Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Albert Brooks, Drive

Anticipated snubs that bum me out...

Ben Kinglsey, Hugo
Robert Forster, The Descendants
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

So, this category is one that I don't feel super sure about. I mean, the safe bets are Plummer and Branagh. Technically Hill is a safe bet also, but he's so bland in Moneyball it almost shocks me he's a sure thing. But he has precursor attention, so I guess that's that. Look for Viggo Mortensen (yum), Armie Hammer (yum), and Max von Sydow (OLD) to be possible spoilers come Tuesday. With my snub list, you can see who I wish would be nominated. They're probably pipe dreams, but a small part of me is holding out for Kingsley (and in a just world, Oswalt would get the "comedian playing against type" nom over Hill).

Best Supporting Actress

The five I predict are...

Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Anticipated snubs that bum me out...

Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia
Pretty much any lady, Bridesmaids (In particular, Maya Rudolph and Rose Byrne)
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris

So, Woodley could very well be nominated (hooray!) in what seems to be a very tight category. I don't really anticipate anyone sneaking that will horrify me (a la Penelope Cruz getting a nom for Nine). The one trick is Bejo, who could easily be placed in the lead category. If category confusion causes a Bejo snub (or Bejo in lead), then Woodley will likely take her place. However, I think that the nature of The Artist makes it seem that most voters are going to do what Harvey Weinstein tells them to do and put her supporting. It's a real shame Gainsbourg has no chance here.

Best Actor

The five I predict are...

George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (commas removed to avoid confusion, yo)

Ok, if you're really trying to win money off of this, you'd be smart to replace Oldman with Leonoardo DiCaprio for J.Edgar. He has more precursor love here in America. But I'm not smart and feel like going off of a hunch that Tinker is poised for a last minute surge due to release date and BAFTA noms. So I'm taking a risk here I hope will pay off. This is a very good category, though and I can't really think of any lead male performances I preferred to these five. I suppose Oldman, if snubbed, would be the one I think should be here. I will say that if DiCaprio does make it over Oldman, then this category is a wonderful idea for a gangbang.

Best Actress

The five I predict are...

Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton (what will she wear next?!?), We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Anticipated snubs that bum me out...

Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Rooney Mara, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

It's safe to say that if it were up to me, I'd take my snub list, add Viola Davis, and call it a day. Alas, I don't have that power. This category seems all sewn up. The only possible surprises would come from Bejo or Mara sneaking in, but I think that seems unlikely at this point. Close and Swinton are the only ones that are vulnerable, but given how things have gone thus far I think they're still the most likely choices.

Best Director

The five I predict are...

Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
David Fincher, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Anticipated snubs that bum me out...

Terrrence Malick, The Tree of Life
The Nazi Lover, Melancholia
Someone I've never heard of (but nice job), Tinker Tailor Solider Spy

Of the predicted five, only Fincher seems vulnerable. If he doesn't make it, I'd guess either Tate Taylor (The Help) or Steven Spielberg (War Horse). Neither of them deserve it over Fincher, so here's to hoping the Academy does the right thing. It blows my mind that Malick has no chance because he created the most visionary movie of the year. If my predictions hold up, a very good category.

Best Picture

Ok, this requires some explanation. I am going to rank my top 10 choices (in order) for Best Picture. Because anywhere from five to ten movies could be nominated, I'm ranking to determine the appropriate cut off point to gauge my success. In other words, if seven movies receive nominations on Tuesday, I will look at my top seven movies here and see how I do. Make sense?

1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. Midnight in Paris
5. The Help
6. Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Moneyball
8. War Horse.
9. Bridesmaids
10. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Anticipated snubs that bum me out...

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2
How to Train Your Dragon (it should be a write in from last year)

Yeah, I don't have much to say. We'll see what happens. I feel super crappy about my choices. Yippee. I think it's safe to say were all in this for the classy fashion choices we'll see on the red carpet.

I'm pretty sure this last dress isn't from the Oscars, but any excuse to continually punish her for Sex and the City 2.


  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  2. Damn, yo. You were pretty spot on.