Oscar Nomination Predictions

IT'S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAR!

Aka Oscar nominations happen this Thursday!  Like usual, I'll offer my predictions for will WILL be nominated and also throw in what should be nominated.  So you'll have a sense of how disgruntled I'll be this weekend.

OFF WE GO!

Best Supporting Actor

Let's work our way up to the big awards.  Much like the actual Oscar broadcast...but without nonsensical awards that seem like filler.

Will be nominated

Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Should be nominated

Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ezra Miller, Perks of Being a Wallflower
Andy Serkis, The Hobbit

Although it may seem like my ideal list is completely different from the projected list, I'm pretty pleased with what will likely happen.  This is a good year for supporting actor.  Regarding my predictions, I think I'll get at least 3/5, but it's possible that Christoph Waltz or Robert DeNiro will slide in here.

Best Supporting Actress

Will be nominated

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Should be nominated

Amy Adams, The Master
Emily Blunt, Looper
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Rebel Wilson, Pitch Perfect

I'm feeling 4/5 here.  Smith/Kidman/Adams are all hovering around a nomination.  But only two can make it, because Field/Hathaway/Hunt are pretty locked in.

Best Actor

Will be nominated

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight

Should be nominated

Jack Black, Bernie
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Yes.  Jack Black.  Really.  I said it.  Phoenix is so clearly the best option...sort of bums me out he could likely get snubbed

Best Actress

Will be nominated

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Should be nominated

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

SO I haven't seen a lot of the Best Actress movies.  I dont' feel particularly strongly about the projected nominees, especially since Riva I put as a gamble...Helen Mirren is a much more likely choice.  BUT HOW CAN SHE NOT BE NOMINATED?  Lawrence and Chastain were strong, so I don't feel badly about their inclusion.  But since I haven't seen Mirren/Watts/Cotillard yet, I can't comment.

Best Director

Will be nominated

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Should be nominated

Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Rian Johnson, Looper

Well.  Hooper is probably going to get another Oscar nom.  And he is a hideous director.  He ruins everything.  I hate him.  Good for BAFTA for flipping him the figurative directorial bird.

Best Picture

There could be anywhere from five to ten noms...so I'll rank them in order.  Take the number of actual nominees and compare to that many on my list.  So if eight nominees are announced, compare that to my top eight.

Will be nominated

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. Django Unchained
8.  Moonrise Kingdom
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
10.  The Master

Should be nominated (just five)

Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Looper
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty